By Zera Mustafaeva
The pattern of targeted destabilization emerged through two separate episodes, each coinciding with Ukraine’s important diplomatic breakthroughs in the Muslim world. The first signal appeared during Ukrainian-Qatari negotiations when a six-year-old chess conflict was artificially revived in the media space. The second episode unfolded against the backdrop of deepening strategic partnership with Turkey: a coordinated information campaign began within Ukraine, targeting the Muslim community in general and specifically Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. The timing of these information attacks with key moments in Ukrainian diplomacy in the Islamic world revealed the handwriting of a “third” party seeking to prevent the formation of new geopolitical alliances.
The Chess Gambit: Anatomy of an Information Operation
In 2017, Ukrainian chess champion Anna Muzychuk’s decision to boycott a tournament in Saudi Arabia over women’s rights restrictions was her personal ethical stance. However, in 2023, this episode unexpectedly became a tool for a large-scale information campaign. Notable was not only the synchronicity of reviving the six-year-old story but also its unprecedented reach: one tweet gathered over 5.3 million views, with total direct posts exceeding 800. The coordinated nature of the campaign manifested through simultaneous participation of Ukrainian journalists, parliamentarians, and public figures.
The timing of this information wave coincided with a critical moment – negotiations between Ukraine and Qatar regarding the return of Ukrainian children deported by Russian authorities. According to information security expert Dmytro Zolotukhin, the operation aimed to undermine Ukraine’s growing influence among Global South countries: “A significant portion of states with which the president’s negotiating team is currently building dialogue are predominantly Muslim countries. To disrupt the process of building understanding between Ukraine and the Muslim world, it’s necessary to destroy potential connections by exploiting existing value differences.”
Minister in the Crosshairs: Anatomy of an Information Attack
The second direction of the disinformation campaign focused on Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov through the publication of a tendentious analytical piece on the influential platform ZN.UA. The timing of the publication was strategically precise: it appeared at the moment of significant escalation in Turkish military support for Syrian opposition forces in their confrontation with the Moscow-backed Assad regime.
“Behind the seemingly analytical format lay openly xenophobic narratives,” notes Refat Chubarov, head of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people. “A clear strategy is visible: to present Crimean Tatar state officials of Ukraine as foreign agents of influence, questioning their Ukrainian patriotism.” This information operation shows signs of a carefully planned campaign aimed at undermining not only the reputation of a specific minister but also discrediting the entire Crimean Tatar component in Ukraine’s political elite.
Destabilization Model: System Analysis
TThe information campaign unfolds against the backdrop of an unprecedented series of personnel decisions affecting key Crimean Tatar representatives in Ukraine’s highest echelons of power. Of particular concern is not only the dismissal of Tamila Tasheva from the position of Deputy Permanent Representative of the President in Crimea in December 2024 but also the removal of Emine Dzhaparova, Deputy Foreign Minister and one of the main architects of the Crimea Platform, in April 2024. Parallel to these personnel changes, there is a curtailment of several strategic projects aimed at monitoring the situation in occupied Crimea and developing strategies for its de-occupation.
The synchronization of administrative decisions with targeted media attacks reveals the systemic nature of the campaign aimed at undermining Ukraine’s ethnic unity. The timing of these actions presents a particular danger – they occur at a critical moment when international support, especially from Muslim countries, acquires strategic importance for Ukrainian resistance to Russian aggression.
Turkey’s Strategic Turn: Anatomy of Disinformation
The intensification of the disinformation campaign gained new scale following Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s landmark statement demanding Russia return Crimea to Ukraine. In response, a coordinated information operation unfolded, showing characteristic features of Russian propaganda: through Russian state media and controlled channels of influence within Ukraine, the manipulative narrative “Today Syria, tomorrow Crimea” began to be promoted.
The goal of this information construct is obvious: to reframe the perception of Turkish support for Ukraine from the realm of countering Russian aggression to the channel of allegedly existing territorial ambitions of Ankara. Such manipulation aims not only to undermine trust in the motives of Turkish support but also to sow doubts about the sincerity of intentions of Ukraine’s key regional ally among Ukrainian society.
Broader Picture: Evolution of Hybrid Warfare
Analysis of Russian tactics demonstrates a qualitative transformation of information influence methods. “Russia has substantially improved its toolkit, moving from straightforward disinformation to complex ethnopolitical engineering,” notes researcher and human rights activist Mustafaeva Zera. “Their new strategy aims to transform Ukraine’s ethnic diversity from a strength into a vulnerability”.
The effectiveness of this strategy is traced in the growing polarization of public discourse. In Ukrainian media space, there is an increase in publications with ethnic undertones. Particular resonance was caused by Maria Berlinska’s interview in “Ukrainska Pravda,” where her controversial statement that “the best scenario for Ukraine is not the 1991 borders” (30:02) provoked heated discussion in the Crimean Tatar community. This statement gained additional sharpness against the backdrop of her additional publications calling for the resignation of Defense Minister Rustem Umerov – one of the most consistent supporters of returning Crimea to Ukraine. Notably, in these publications, the emphasis unjustifiably shifts from professional competencies to the minister’s ethnic background.
The totality of these events demonstrates the systemic nature of the information campaign aimed at undermining inter-ethnic unity at a critical moment for Ukraine’s expansion of international support.
Looking Ahead
As Ukraine continues to strengthen partnerships with Turkey and other Muslim countries, experts warn that these influence operations are likely to intensify. Moscow sees Ukraine’s ethnic diversity as a pressure point. Each new international alliance of Ukraine becomes a target for Russian information operations. For Ukraine’s leadership, the task is clear: to maintain ethnic unity while building international partnerships in the face of an adversary seeking to pit one against the other.